More on Next Year's Market Crash

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Jeff’s Random Words

The afternoon before the election, Jason and I recorded a podcast episode about the potential for a market crash in 2025. Despite the purposely silly clickbait episode title, we wanted the conversation to be partly about the current market, the likelihood of a downturn, and how to handle a market crash. The second part is really what matters. We have no idea if there will be a market crash in 2025, but we know there will be one at some point. It’s a matter of when, not if.

Then we had the election. At first, the market ripped, but over the last few days, it gave back a lot of those gains. In the end, since the close of the market on the day we recorded that episode through the market close on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both up 2.8%.

I don’t know how much you paid attention to the market over the last 10 days, but I spent most of that time on vacation, and then catching up at work and with life after vacation (ever feel like you need a vacation after your vacation?).

Now that I’ve had a moment to reflect, I was surprised to see how modest the market gains have been considering how frantic it all felt at the moment.

It’s all about psychology

I want to connect back to the episode about preparing for a market crash. Essentially, preparing for a market crash is the same as preparing for market euphoria. Whether you’re Warren Buffett or someone who bought their first stock today, your success in times of market hysteria (positive or negative) is largely determined by how you ACT, not what you KNOW.

While on vacation, I largely ignored the market moves. That’s partly because I was busy but also because I’ve built into my process a bit of a defense mechanism. When the market is frantic, I disengage. It feels like this is the best way for me to prevent dumb decisions. I’m sure I’m missing out on opportunities at times, but over the long haul, I will likely prevent more mistakes than the opportunities I miss out on.

So at some point soon, I will have some free time and will be able to go through my portfolio and watchlist and make a decision on what to buy next. But I want that decision to be in a time of calm, and not a time of mania.

Jeff

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Jason’s Random Words

All I know is that Jeff left the country and the stock market ripped. He came back and it fell hard.

Jason

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